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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 10 March 17
THE 5TH PHILIPPINES POWER AND ELECTRICITY WEEK RETURNS WITH A UNIQUE FOCUS IN 2017
5th Annual Philippines Power & Electricity
18-21 July 2017
Solaire Resort & Casino,Manila, Philippines
http://www.philippinespowe ...
Thursday, 09 March 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE DROPPED FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN MARCH, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWED
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price dropped for a fourth straight month in March, government data showed. The ...
Wednesday, 08 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET TODAY PROVIDES MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
So what's all the fuss about? During the past five months SnP activity has being surging exponentially in the dry bulk sector. Buyers are looki ...
Monday, 06 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO FIRM UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firm up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk com ...
Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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