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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 10 March 17
THE 5TH PHILIPPINES POWER AND ELECTRICITY WEEK RETURNS WITH A UNIQUE FOCUS IN 2017
5th Annual Philippines Power & Electricity
18-21 July 2017
Solaire Resort & Casino,Manila, Philippines
http://www.philippinespowe ...
Thursday, 09 March 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE DROPPED FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT MONTH IN MARCH, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWED
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price dropped for a fourth straight month in March, government data showed. The ...
Wednesday, 08 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET TODAY PROVIDES MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO LAST YEAR - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
So what's all the fuss about? During the past five months SnP activity has being surging exponentially in the dry bulk sector. Buyers are looki ...
Monday, 06 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUING TO FIRM UP THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firm up this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk com ...
Friday, 03 March 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT 15.7 MMST; DECLINE 6.7% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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