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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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