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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 21 March 17
JAPAN'S RENEWED COMMITMENT TO COAL - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Japan is one of the largest economies in the world, and has long been a major consumer and importer of energy and a leader in energy technology dev ...
Monday, 20 March 17
IS THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY STILL ON TRACK FOR PROFITABILITY IN 2019? - PETER SAND
The industry remains well on target for profitable freight rates in 2019! This relies however, on the projected fleet supply growth rate of 0% in 2 ...
Friday, 17 March 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT VOLUME SLIDES 6.5 PERCENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CHINA IMPOSING TOUGHER CONTROLS ON LOW-QUALITY COAL IMPORTS
China is ramping up controls on imports of low-quality coal due to concerns about smog and overcapacity in the world’s top coal consumer, a g ...
Thursday, 16 March 17
CAPESIZE: SHOWING STRENGTH; PANAMAX: VERY QUIET - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The Atlantic market faced less activity from the USG whereas at the Cont tonnage seemed to tighten up with more cargoes emerging. Despit ...
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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