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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 24 March 17
ADARO INDONESIA'S COAL SALES VOLUME INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 54.1 MILLION TONES IN 2016
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest coal miner’s sales volume increased slightly to 54.1 million tones (Mt) i ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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