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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 30 March 17
PANAMAX : ACTIVITY IN THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week we were looking at prolonged activity from ECSA, mostly with grain cargoes to Far East and SE Asia, where Ultras to SE Asia fi ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
THE ROLE OF COAL IN THE ENERGY SUPPLY OF THE EU-28: HANS-WILHELM SCHIFFER
The European Union (EU-28) is one of the largest economies in the world, with a gross domestic product (GDP) of €14,635 billion in 2015. It ha ...
Wednesday, 29 March 17
MARKET INSIGHT - NASOS SOULAKIS
Shipowners will always look for market signals in order to gauge market perception and decide upon which strategy to follow next. And while owners ...
Monday, 27 March 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUED TO FIRM WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 24 March 17
ADARO INDONESIA'S COAL SALES VOLUME INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 54.1 MILLION TONES IN 2016
COALspot.com: PT. Adaro Indonesia, Indonesia’s second largest coal miner’s sales volume increased slightly to 54.1 million tones (Mt) i ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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