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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 04 April 17
THE IRON ORE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ITS GROWTH PATH FAIRLY WELL; THERE IS STILL ONE PART OF THE WORLD THAT IS STILL HEAVILY COMMITTED TO COAL
With the close of March having let us with a very positive after taste and having witnessed near the end of the month the Baltic Dry Index at its h ...
Monday, 03 April 17
WORLD COAL TRADE STABLE IN 2016: DEMAND SHIFTS TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI: Coal confirmed as the leading fuel for electricity generation, accounting for 40% of overall production in 2016.
World coal trade ...
Monday, 03 April 17
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUING TO FIRMING UP
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up. Baltic Panamax Index rose 12.81 percent week over week.
The Baltic Exchang ...
Friday, 31 March 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
WHERE AN AGREEMENT FAILS TO DELIVER - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Watson Farley & Williams acted for MRI Trading AG in a leading case on ‘agreements to agree’ that was fin ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
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