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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 04 April 17
THE IRON ORE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KEEP ITS GROWTH PATH FAIRLY WELL; THERE IS STILL ONE PART OF THE WORLD THAT IS STILL HEAVILY COMMITTED TO COAL
With the close of March having let us with a very positive after taste and having witnessed near the end of the month the Baltic Dry Index at its h ...
Monday, 03 April 17
WORLD COAL TRADE STABLE IN 2016: DEMAND SHIFTS TO SOUTH-EAST ASIA - ASSOCARBONI
ASSOCARBONI: Coal confirmed as the leading fuel for electricity generation, accounting for 40% of overall production in 2016.
World coal trade ...
Monday, 03 April 17
DRY BULK RATES CONTINUING TO FIRMING UP
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up. Baltic Panamax Index rose 12.81 percent week over week.
The Baltic Exchang ...
Friday, 31 March 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASE SLIGHTLY WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 30 March 17
WHERE AN AGREEMENT FAILS TO DELIVER - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Watson Farley & Williams acted for MRI Trading AG in a leading case on ‘agreements to agree’ that was fin ...
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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