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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 March 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DECLINE 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
CAPESIZE: TAKING A BREATHER AFTER RALLYING - BUT OUTLOOK FOR WEEKS TO COME NOT SCARY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Pacific the market seems somewhat slower this week, although healthy rates still being achieved said Fearnleys in its latest week ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 4.77 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 2,090,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Wednesday, 22 March 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS UNDOUBTEDLY REBOUNDED SINCE THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The Dry Bulk market has undoubtedly rebounded since the same period last year and currently enjoys healthier freight rates. The positive reversal i ...
Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016.
Despite challenging marke ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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