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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 24 March 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE DECLINE 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
CAPESIZE: TAKING A BREATHER AFTER RALLYING - BUT OUTLOOK FOR WEEKS TO COME NOT SCARY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
In the Pacific the market seems somewhat slower this week, although healthy rates still being achieved said Fearnleys in its latest week ...
Thursday, 23 March 17
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED INVITES BIDS FOR TOTAL 4.77 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 2,090,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal f ...
Wednesday, 22 March 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS UNDOUBTEDLY REBOUNDED SINCE THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
The Dry Bulk market has undoubtedly rebounded since the same period last year and currently enjoys healthier freight rates. The positive reversal i ...
Tuesday, 21 March 17
DESPITE THE CHALLENGING MARKET SITUATION IN 2016 THE DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR HAS ACHIEVED A NET PROFIT OF US$37 MILLION
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the period ended December 31, 2016.
Despite challenging marke ...
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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