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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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