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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 15 March 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
Over the past two weeks, the Dry Baltic Index has been on an upward trend, breaking the 1000 point mark and creating a positive sentiment for the u ...
Tuesday, 14 March 17
ORDERBOOK-TO-FEET RATIO DECREASING; THE FREIGHT MARKET IMPROVING
It seems as though the renewed optimism that has arisen from the recent upward trends being noted in the freight market, the dry bulk market has be ...
Monday, 13 March 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 11.563 MILLION TONS COAL IN FEBRUARY 2017; DECLINED 12.19 PERCENT M/M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,4 ...
Monday, 13 March 17
INDO - INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The Freight market was continuing to firming up.
The Baltic Exchange, tracking rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities ros ...
Friday, 10 March 17
ESTIMATED U.S. COAL PRODUCTION ALMOST FLAT WEEK ENDED MARCH 4, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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