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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 17 April 17
THE PANAMAX INDEX (BPI) ROSE (12.89%) WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firm, week over a week as all segments show a positive upward trend this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, ...
Monday, 17 April 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 5% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude fut ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.791 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,688.5 ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
The first quarter of 2017 started relatively busy for the ship repair sector, with most of the repair facilities being nearly fully occupied till t ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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