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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 17 April 17
THE PANAMAX INDEX (BPI) ROSE (12.89%) WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was firm, week over a week as all segments show a positive upward trend this past week.
The Baltic Exchange, ...
Monday, 17 April 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT FELL 5% WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
Thursday, 13 April 17
OPEC OVER-DELIVERS ON OIL CUTS, BUT SEES RIVALS' OUTPUT RISING
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $50.32/b in March, representing a decline of 5.7% from the previous month. Crude fut ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.791 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN MARCH 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,688.5 ...
Wednesday, 12 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS VASSILIOU
The first quarter of 2017 started relatively busy for the ship repair sector, with most of the repair facilities being nearly fully occupied till t ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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