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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 April 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS DOWN WEEK OVER WEEK EXCEPT FOR HANDYSIZE SEGMENT
COALspot.com: The Freight market was fell, week over a week as all segments show a negative downward trend except Handy Size segment this past week ...
Friday, 21 April 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE UP, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
SHIPPING POOLS: DON'T JUST DIVE IN - MOORE STEPHENS
Shipping pools can be an attractive option for ship owners and operators, particularly in difficult markets and during periods of economic uncertai ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL ON ITS UPWARD MOMENTUM - ALLIED SHIPPING
Having gone through the first quarter of the year and with the Easter break having no come and gone, it seems as though the dry bulk market is stil ...
Thursday, 20 April 17
CHINA'S IMPORT OF IRON ORE TO PROPEL DRY BULK SHIPPING DEMAND IN 2017 - PETER SAND
China's import of iron ore will continue to be a key driver for the demand growth in 2017 for the dry bulk shipping industry, alongside shippin ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
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