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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 10 April 17
THE CAPE INDEX WAS DOWN BY 16.32% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was steady week over a week except for Cape. The cape index was down 16.32 percent week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 07 April 17
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED SPOT COAL PRICES STAGE FIRST INCREASE OF THE YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose slightly in April, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indon ...
Friday, 07 April 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ALMOST FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 06 April 17
PANAMAX: THE MARKET HAS CONTINUED THE FIRM SENTIMENT FROM LAST WEEK IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
With holidays in Asia, the week has started very slow in Pacific. Some fixtures have still been done and levels have remained quite stab ...
Wednesday, 05 April 17
THE AVERAGE SECOND HAND PANAMAXES AND CAPES PRICES FOR A 5-YR OLD VESSEL HAS INCREASED MORE THAN 19% AND 20% RESPECTIVELY M/M - INTERMODAL
With the help of what so far appears to be a very strong grain season together with the fact that imports from China have remained so far robust in ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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