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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 10 April 17
THE CAPE INDEX WAS DOWN BY 16.32% WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market was steady week over a week except for Cape. The cape index was down 16.32 percent week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 07 April 17
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT DECLARED SPOT COAL PRICES STAGE FIRST INCREASE OF THE YEAR
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose slightly in April, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indon ...
Friday, 07 April 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ALMOST FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 14.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 06 April 17
PANAMAX: THE MARKET HAS CONTINUED THE FIRM SENTIMENT FROM LAST WEEK IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
With holidays in Asia, the week has started very slow in Pacific. Some fixtures have still been done and levels have remained quite stab ...
Wednesday, 05 April 17
THE AVERAGE SECOND HAND PANAMAXES AND CAPES PRICES FOR A 5-YR OLD VESSEL HAS INCREASED MORE THAN 19% AND 20% RESPECTIVELY M/M - INTERMODAL
With the help of what so far appears to be a very strong grain season together with the fact that imports from China have remained so far robust in ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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