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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Over the weekend we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer, Allied shipping s ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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