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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 28 April 17
DELTA DUNIA RECORDED $24 MILLION NET PROFIT FOR FIRST QUARTER OF 2017; UP 700% Y/Y
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. has announced its financial results for the first quarter of 2017 yesterday. According to the ...
Thursday, 27 April 17
PACIFIC IS SOFTENING WITH MORE TONNAGE OPENING AND LESS COAL ORDERS AROUND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Relatively slow week, with both basins showing signs of cooling down. Although grain cargoes out ECSA and ECCA on Ultras still delivered ...
Wednesday, 26 April 17
IRON ORE PRICES HAVE BEEN ON A ROLLERCOASTER RIDE OVER THE LAST MONTH - CHRISTOPHER WHITTY
Iron ore prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the last month. Prices started the year on a very positive note, surging up to their highest ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
FIONA POUNDS: VALID TENDER OF NOTICE OF READINESS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the recent English High Court case of MV Arundel Castle1, the Judge ruled that a vessel, that could not immediately pr ...
Tuesday, 25 April 17
SHIPPING MARKET - ALLIED
Over the weekend we witnessed a second win over the rising populism that has become present in global politics since last summer, Allied shipping s ...
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Showing 2061 to 2065 news of total 6871 |
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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