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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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Showing 2051 to 2055 news of total 6871 |
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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