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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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Showing 2051 to 2055 news of total 6871 |
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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