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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Up until a few weeks ago, demo deals were being concluded at just a fraction below $400/ldt. Last time we saw demo prices around that level was in ...
Tuesday, 09 May 17
DRY BULK TRADE IS STILL HEAVILY RELIANT ON CHINA - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have seen an overall cool down in the dry bulk and tanker markets over the final two weeks of April, sparking worries amongst ship-owners that t ...
Monday, 08 May 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES FOR SECOND STRAIGHT MONTH IN MAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian government declared coal benchmark price rose in May, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian therm ...
Monday, 08 May 17
OCEAN BULK CARGO RATES FALL FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continues to slump this past week, with all segments show a negative downward trend week over week.
The Balti ...
Monday, 08 May 17
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ON THE DOWN - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.8 million short tons ...
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Showing 2051 to 2055 news of total 6871 |
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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