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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - w ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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Showing 2046 to 2050 news of total 6871 |
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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