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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 May 17
THE CHINESE IMPORTS ARE A BAROMETER FOR VESSEL UTILIZATION - INTERMODAL
According to economic data, China imports increased year-on-year 38% in February, 20% in March – which is approximately US$160-170b - w ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 0.99 PERCENT LESS COAL IN APRIL 2017
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export ports has shipped $AU 1,636.2 ...
Monday, 15 May 17
THE CAPESIZE INDEX ROSE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market slightly up this past week, as BDI and Cape shows a positive trend week over week.
The Baltic Exchange, track ...
Friday, 12 May 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DOWN AGAIN WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.3 million short tons ...
Friday, 12 May 17
SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET
Supramax
In the Atlantic, only USG were showing some improvement, where pet-coke cargoes to India was fixed in the range of 19-23k daily and to C ...
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Showing 2046 to 2050 news of total 6871 |
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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