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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the carte ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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