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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 May 17
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KAKAVITSAS
In the next episode of the oil market; The market reacts to OPEC’s production cut extension, the US shale oil producers are ruining the carte ...
Tuesday, 30 May 17
MARKET ANALYSIS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Despite the fair performance that has been noted in the Chinese economy over the past 5 months, we have started to see an increase in the skepticis ...
Friday, 26 May 17
MOST COAL PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES WERE BUILT BEFORE 1990 - EIA
Coal-fired electricity generators accounted for 25% of operating electricity generating capacity in the United States and generated about 30% of U. ...
Friday, 26 May 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT ESTIMATE UP 6.3% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.3 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 24 May 17
LR MARKET IT SEEMS THAT EARNINGS ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
As we are approaching the summer season, the Clean Product market appears poised to become more challenging, either on East or West of Suez.
L ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
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