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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OP ...
Tuesday, 06 June 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continued to tumble this past week, as BDI and cape index showed a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 02 June 17
THE WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION HAS RESPONDED TO THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“This decision is the result of a failure to build a genuine coalition on climate action that recognises the role of all technologies, includ ...
Friday, 02 June 17
MOL SIGNS COAL TRANSPORT DEAL WITH THERMAL POWERTECH CORPORATION INDIA LIMITED
MOL Signs Coal Transport Deal with Thermal Powertech Corporation India Limited - Contributing to a Stable Power Supply in India -
Jun ...
Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
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Showing 2031 to 2035 news of total 6871 |
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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