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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 07 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS MAKRINOS
2017 undoubtedly began with very optimistic signs for the future of the Oil & Gas industry on the back of the Vienna Agreement. OPEC and non-OP ...
Tuesday, 06 June 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUE TO TUMBLE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market continued to tumble this past week, as BDI and cape index showed a negative trend week over week.
The Baltic ...
Friday, 02 June 17
THE WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION HAS RESPONDED TO THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE UNITED STATES FROM THE PARIS AGREEMENT
“This decision is the result of a failure to build a genuine coalition on climate action that recognises the role of all technologies, includ ...
Friday, 02 June 17
MOL SIGNS COAL TRANSPORT DEAL WITH THERMAL POWERTECH CORPORATION INDIA LIMITED
MOL Signs Coal Transport Deal with Thermal Powertech Corporation India Limited - Contributing to a Stable Power Supply in India -
Jun ...
Friday, 02 June 17
U.S THE PAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP 4.4% - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
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Showing 2031 to 2035 news of total 6871 |
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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