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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 June 17
HANDYSIZES AND PANAMAXES ENJOY THE TIGHTEST SUPPLY - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The dry and the tanker shipping segments have dissimilar exposure to supply-driven opportunity (or risk). While the vintage (i.e., over 15 years ol ...
Tuesday, 13 June 17
THE TANKER FREIGHT MARKET IS STILL UNDER PRESSURE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
News of U.S. inventory decline has hit the market by surprise with prices of the commodity showing some quick revival as OPEC continues to push wit ...
Monday, 12 June 17
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX TOOK A POSITIVE STEP
COALspot.com: The Freight market incline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positive trend week ...
Friday, 09 June 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Wednesday, 07 June 17
INDO HBA INDEX SEE LARGEST DROP SINCE FEBRUARY 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price decline 9.96% in June, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal de ...
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Showing 2026 to 2030 news of total 6871 |
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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