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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 June 17
HANDYSIZES AND PANAMAXES ENJOY THE TIGHTEST SUPPLY - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
The dry and the tanker shipping segments have dissimilar exposure to supply-driven opportunity (or risk). While the vintage (i.e., over 15 years ol ...
Tuesday, 13 June 17
THE TANKER FREIGHT MARKET IS STILL UNDER PRESSURE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
News of U.S. inventory decline has hit the market by surprise with prices of the commodity showing some quick revival as OPEC continues to push wit ...
Monday, 12 June 17
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX TOOK A POSITIVE STEP
COALspot.com: The Freight market incline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positive trend week ...
Friday, 09 June 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15 million short tonnes ...
Wednesday, 07 June 17
INDO HBA INDEX SEE LARGEST DROP SINCE FEBRUARY 2017
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price decline 9.96% in June, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal coal de ...
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Showing 2026 to 2030 news of total 6871 |
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Minerals Council of Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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