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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 30 June 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIGHTLY DOWN
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tonn ...
Wednesday, 28 June 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
From the beginning of the year until now SnP activity has changed significantly. To put things into perspective, after a fast and furious q1 on the ...
Monday, 26 June 17
PANAMAX/KAMARMAXES HAD A STRONG WEEK WITH RATES RISING IN MOST AREAS OF THE MARKET - BALTICEXCHANGE
Capesize
A dark cloud appeared to have descended over the market for the big ships with rates continuing to slide in all areas. There was a repor ...
Friday, 23 June 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 15.8 MMST; UP 1.8% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.8 million short tonn ...
Wednesday, 21 June 17
MARKET INSIGHT - SHIPPING
Looking back at March and April shipping reports when the dry bulk indexes were starting to move up, a number of shipping analysts were stating tha ...
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Showing 2016 to 2020 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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