We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 06 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO INDIA TRIPS WITH DELIVERY THAILAND RANGE IS GIVING OWNERS AROUND MID $8000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Another slow start to the week with somewhat softening rates and few fixtures.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, the N ...
Thursday, 06 July 17
UNEXPECTED MOVE FROM CHINA BOOSTS COAL PRICES - OIL PRICE
Coal prices have been cooling the last few months — after a spectacular run last year. But news late last week suggests the market is about t ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
COAL PRICES ROSE IN CHINA, JAPAN AND EUROPE IN 2016 - BP
COALspot.com: Coal prices rose in China, Japan and Europe in 2016 after four years of price declines.
According to bp, the rise in coal prices ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
A war of words blasted last month as the UAE, S. Arabia, Egypt and Bahrain revealed that they are experiencing severe diplomatic issues with the st ...
Wednesday, 05 July 17
TROUBLE SEEMS TO BE LOOMING ONCE MORE IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Trouble seems to be looming once more in the steel industry as US President Trump puts forth his plans for specialist protectionist measures for th ...
|
|
|
Showing 2011 to 2015 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
|
| |
| |
|
