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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 July 17
CHINA'S ECONOMY HAS BOOSTED OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: China’s economy has boosted optimism in the market as its recently announced GDP growth for the second quarter of the year exce ...
Friday, 14 July 17
IMPORTED COAL IS STILL A SAFE AND RELIABLE SOURCE OF ENERGY IN GERMANY - VDKI
COALspot.com: Imported coal is still a safe and reliable source of energy in Germany. World coal mining has reached a high plateau, but not yet a t ...
Friday, 14 July 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL-OUTPUT IN SIGNIFICANT DECLINE, EIA FIGURES SHOW
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 13 July 17
BELT AND ROAD SHIPPING INDICES OFFICIALLY RELEASED - XINHUA
COALspot.com: The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) Tuesday officially launched the Belt and Road shipping indices to track freight trade data among ...
Thursday, 13 July 17
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE TRIPS TO CHINA VIA PHILIPPINES WITH DELIVERY S. CHINA IS PAYING AROUND MID $9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
COALspot.com: Another slow start to the week with somewhat softening rates and few fixtures.
Nickel Ore trips to China via the Phil ...
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Showing 2001 to 2005 news of total 6871 |
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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