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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 July 17
CHINA'S ECONOMY HAS BOOSTED OPTIMISM IN THE MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
COALspot.com: China’s economy has boosted optimism in the market as its recently announced GDP growth for the second quarter of the year exce ...
Friday, 14 July 17
IMPORTED COAL IS STILL A SAFE AND RELIABLE SOURCE OF ENERGY IN GERMANY - VDKI
COALspot.com: Imported coal is still a safe and reliable source of energy in Germany. World coal mining has reached a high plateau, but not yet a t ...
Friday, 14 July 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL-OUTPUT IN SIGNIFICANT DECLINE, EIA FIGURES SHOW
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.4 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 13 July 17
BELT AND ROAD SHIPPING INDICES OFFICIALLY RELEASED - XINHUA
COALspot.com: The Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) Tuesday officially launched the Belt and Road shipping indices to track freight trade data among ...
Thursday, 13 July 17
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE TRIPS TO CHINA VIA PHILIPPINES WITH DELIVERY S. CHINA IS PAYING AROUND MID $9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
COALspot.com: Another slow start to the week with somewhat softening rates and few fixtures.
Nickel Ore trips to China via the Phil ...
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Showing 2001 to 2005 news of total 6871 |
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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