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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 26 July 17
SHIPPIPNG MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
After an admittedly challenging 2016, the Dry Bulk market kicked off this year on a much more positive note, with all indices steadily increasing u ...
Monday, 24 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a positive trend week over week.
...
Friday, 21 July 17
ESTIMATED WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 15.3 MMST; UP 13.5% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 20 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS ARE TRADING AROUND MID/HIGH $11K WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive week again in the Pacific with rates moving upwards.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, Nopac rounds are pay ...
Wednesday, 19 July 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Referring back to a previous Intermodal insight that was written in the first quarter of 2017, the author at the time had claimed that MR tanker ra ...
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Showing 1996 to 2000 news of total 6871 |
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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