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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 26 July 17
SHIPPIPNG MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
After an admittedly challenging 2016, the Dry Bulk market kicked off this year on a much more positive note, with all indices steadily increasing u ...
Monday, 24 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE THIS PAST WEEK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a positive trend week over week.
...
Friday, 21 July 17
ESTIMATED WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 15.3 MMST; UP 13.5% W/W
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tonn ...
Thursday, 20 July 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL ROUNDS ARE TRADING AROUND MID/HIGH $11K WITH SINGAPORE DELIVERY - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A positive week again in the Pacific with rates moving upwards.
According to Fearnleys Weekly Dry bulk report, Nopac rounds are pay ...
Wednesday, 19 July 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
Referring back to a previous Intermodal insight that was written in the first quarter of 2017, the author at the time had claimed that MR tanker ra ...
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Showing 1996 to 2000 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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