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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 July 17
COAL HAS CONTINUED A STELLAR RUN OVER THE PAST YEAR GAINING ~10% OVER THE PAST QUARTER AND ~41% OVER THE PAST YEAR - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Having just passed the second quarter of 2017, it is interesting to take a look at the performance of the commodity market and how certain commodit ...
Monday, 10 July 17
A ROLLERCOASTER YEAR FOR COAL PRICES; ICPR ROSE 4.62% M/M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 4.62% in July, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal c ...
Monday, 10 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a negative trend week over week ...
Friday, 07 July 17
SHOULD WE BE AVOIDING GENERAL AVERAGE? - ALEX KEMP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Calls for general average to be abolished are nearly as old as the regime itself. A representative of Lloyd’s atten ...
Friday, 07 July 17
EIA ESTIMATES SHOW U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.7 PERCENT
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.9 million short tonn ...
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Showing 2006 to 2010 news of total 6871 |
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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