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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 July 17
COAL HAS CONTINUED A STELLAR RUN OVER THE PAST YEAR GAINING ~10% OVER THE PAST QUARTER AND ~41% OVER THE PAST YEAR - LINOS KOGEVINAS
Having just passed the second quarter of 2017, it is interesting to take a look at the performance of the commodity market and how certain commodit ...
Monday, 10 July 17
A ROLLERCOASTER YEAR FOR COAL PRICES; ICPR ROSE 4.62% M/M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 4.62% in July, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal c ...
Monday, 10 July 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market decline this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and Cape indexes show a negative trend week over week ...
Friday, 07 July 17
SHOULD WE BE AVOIDING GENERAL AVERAGE? - ALEX KEMP
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Calls for general average to be abolished are nearly as old as the regime itself. A representative of Lloyd’s atten ...
Friday, 07 July 17
EIA ESTIMATES SHOW U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 1.7 PERCENT
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.9 million short tonn ...
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Showing 2006 to 2010 news of total 6871 |
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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