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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 04 August 17
IMPORTED COAL CONTINUES TO BE A COMPETITIVE, SAFE AND RELIABLE ENERGY SOURCE FOR GERMANY - VDKI
COALspot.com: Worldwide hard coal production in 2016 declined by 3.8% to 6.7 billion tonnes.
According to the Germany Coal Importers Associati ...
Thursday, 03 August 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL ROUNDS ARE GETTING FIXED AROUND MID $8000 - FEARNLEYS
In the Pacific rates have remained weak and under pressure this week with most routes softening.
Indo/China coal rounds are getting fixed arou ...
Thursday, 03 August 17
BUMI RESOURCES COAL SALES RELATIVELY FLAT AT 41.5 MILLION TONS IN 1H' 17; REPORTS US$162.3 MILLION PROFIT IN FIRST SEMESTER
COALspot.com: The BUMI Resources, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal producer, has reported a net income of $162.3 million in 1H’ 17 c ...
Wednesday, 02 August 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
During the duration of the first half of the year, the dry bulk market saw intense buying interest that boosted SnP prices significantly. We saw a ...
Monday, 31 July 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 750K MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG NAR COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a new tender for 750,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal for its B ...
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Showing 1986 to 1990 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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