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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 08 August 17
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 5200 AND 5700 NAR COAL FOR Q4 2017
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 420,000 Metric Tons of Bituminous coal ...
Monday, 07 August 17
INDIA'S THERMAL COAL IMPORTS HAVE FALLEN BY 16% YEAR-ON-YEAR IN THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF THIS YEAR
COALspot.com: The second quarter of 2017 was characterized by volatility in the coal market driven by policy measures and weather disruptions say A ...
Monday, 07 August 17
BUMA SIGNED $385 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT PADA IDI
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into min ...
Monday, 07 August 17
THE SHIPPING INDEXES BOUNCE BACK THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Freight market rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positive trend week ove ...
Friday, 04 August 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 4.4% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short tonn ...
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Showing 1981 to 1985 news of total 6871 |
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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