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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 09 August 17
THE KEY IMPORTERS OF U.S. COAL FOR THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2017 ARE THE NETHERLANDS, INDIA AND JAPAN - PETER SAND, BIMCO
US seaborne coal exports have turned years of negative growth around and seem to be climbing for a third quarter in a row. The increase in total vo ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCREASE COULD CONTINUE IN THE COMING MONTHS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 6.36% in August, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
COAL HAS GAINED AROUND 40% OVER THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS; IRON ORE HAS MOVED FROM AROUND $50/T IN AUGUST 2016 TO OVER $70/T TODAY - INTERMODAL
During the summer’s peak, and with the markets remaining relatively quiet, we can argue that most markets have built solid foundations to enj ...
Tuesday, 08 August 17
THE BULLISH RIDE CONTINUES ON FOR THE IRON ORE MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The bullish ride continues on for the iron ore market, with most in the market now eyeing the possibility for further gains to be had as Chine ...
Tuesday, 08 August 17
COAL SALES DESTINATION IS DOMINATED BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN ASIA - ADARO
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy has produced 13.27 million tonnes of coal during the second quarter of 2017, from the mines PT Adaro Indonesia, PT Semes ...
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Showing 1976 to 1980 news of total 6871 |
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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