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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 09 August 17
THE KEY IMPORTERS OF U.S. COAL FOR THE FIRST FIVE MONTHS OF 2017 ARE THE NETHERLANDS, INDIA AND JAPAN - PETER SAND, BIMCO
US seaborne coal exports have turned years of negative growth around and seem to be climbing for a third quarter in a row. The increase in total vo ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCREASE COULD CONTINUE IN THE COMING MONTHS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price rose 6.36% in August, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 09 August 17
COAL HAS GAINED AROUND 40% OVER THE PAST TWELVE MONTHS; IRON ORE HAS MOVED FROM AROUND $50/T IN AUGUST 2016 TO OVER $70/T TODAY - INTERMODAL
During the summer’s peak, and with the markets remaining relatively quiet, we can argue that most markets have built solid foundations to enj ...
Tuesday, 08 August 17
THE BULLISH RIDE CONTINUES ON FOR THE IRON ORE MARKET - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The bullish ride continues on for the iron ore market, with most in the market now eyeing the possibility for further gains to be had as Chine ...
Tuesday, 08 August 17
COAL SALES DESTINATION IS DOMINATED BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN ASIA - ADARO
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy has produced 13.27 million tonnes of coal during the second quarter of 2017, from the mines PT Adaro Indonesia, PT Semes ...
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Showing 1976 to 1980 news of total 6871 |
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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