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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 August 17
FIRM DEMAND FOR CAPES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY BULK SHIPPING
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to rose this past week compared to the previous weeks, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a posit ...
Friday, 18 August 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 2.1% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 17 August 17
DESPITE A HOLIDAY-DISRUPTED WEEK IT HAS BEEN A NEW ACTIVE WEEK FOR THE PANAMAXES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A very quiet start to the week with holidays in several countries. USG still bringing good results supported by a tight tonnage availabl ...
Monday, 14 August 17
CENTURIES ON, AND DRY BULK STILL RULES THE WAVES... - SARAH HOLDEN | CLARKSONS
By the late 1800s, the shipping industry had been transformed by the introduction of steam power and iron ships. Coal and grain were two of the mos ...
Monday, 14 August 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUES ON AN UPWARD PATH
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positi ...
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Showing 1966 to 1970 news of total 6871 |
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
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