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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 August 17
FIRM DEMAND FOR CAPES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DRY BULK SHIPPING
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to rose this past week compared to the previous weeks, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a posit ...
Friday, 18 August 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 2.1% WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.5 million short ton ...
Thursday, 17 August 17
DESPITE A HOLIDAY-DISRUPTED WEEK IT HAS BEEN A NEW ACTIVE WEEK FOR THE PANAMAXES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A very quiet start to the week with holidays in several countries. USG still bringing good results supported by a tight tonnage availabl ...
Monday, 14 August 17
CENTURIES ON, AND DRY BULK STILL RULES THE WAVES... - SARAH HOLDEN | CLARKSONS
By the late 1800s, the shipping industry had been transformed by the introduction of steam power and iron ships. Coal and grain were two of the mos ...
Monday, 14 August 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET CONTINUES ON AN UPWARD PATH
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to rose this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI, Cape and Panamax indexes show a positi ...
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Showing 1966 to 1970 news of total 6871 |
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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