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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 23 August 17
THE STRONG IRON ORE TRADE ROUTES SUPPORT CAPESIZE SEGMENT - INTERMODAL
The upward trend in the Capesize segment is definitely being supported by the strong momentum in the key iron ore trade routes. The price of high-q ...
Tuesday, 22 August 17
WHAT IS A RELEASE CALL?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Joining a mutual P&I Club means each Member shares in the fortunes of that Club and its membership. The continuity of ...
Tuesday, 22 August 17
THOSE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER STEEL PRODUCTION IN CHINA - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: One popular but inaccurate narrative that makes the rounds every June and July (and occurred again this year) is that China’s s ...
Monday, 21 August 17
BANPU REVEALS FIRST HALF 2017 WITH STRONG RESULTS; SUPPORTED BY HIGHER COAL PRICES
Banpu Reveals First Half 2017 with Strong Results from Higher Coal Prices Gearing Up to the Era of New Energy with Banpu Greener & Smarter Stra ...
Monday, 21 August 17
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS DECLINE TO 192 MT IN FY17 - PTI
Import of coal saw a decline of 6.37 per cent to 191.95 million tonnes (MT) in 2016-17 on higher production by CIL that saw the country move to a r ...
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Showing 1961 to 1965 news of total 6871 |
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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