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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 23 August 17
THE STRONG IRON ORE TRADE ROUTES SUPPORT CAPESIZE SEGMENT - INTERMODAL
The upward trend in the Capesize segment is definitely being supported by the strong momentum in the key iron ore trade routes. The price of high-q ...
Tuesday, 22 August 17
WHAT IS A RELEASE CALL?
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Joining a mutual P&I Club means each Member shares in the fortunes of that Club and its membership. The continuity of ...
Tuesday, 22 August 17
THOSE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER STEEL PRODUCTION IN CHINA - COMMODORE
COALspot.com: One popular but inaccurate narrative that makes the rounds every June and July (and occurred again this year) is that China’s s ...
Monday, 21 August 17
BANPU REVEALS FIRST HALF 2017 WITH STRONG RESULTS; SUPPORTED BY HIGHER COAL PRICES
Banpu Reveals First Half 2017 with Strong Results from Higher Coal Prices Gearing Up to the Era of New Energy with Banpu Greener & Smarter Stra ...
Monday, 21 August 17
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS DECLINE TO 192 MT IN FY17 - PTI
Import of coal saw a decline of 6.37 per cent to 191.95 million tonnes (MT) in 2016-17 on higher production by CIL that saw the country move to a r ...
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Showing 1961 to 1965 news of total 6871 |
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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