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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 07 September 17
CAPESIZE: EARNINGS FOR THE BIG SHIPS KEEP UP NICELY AS DIPS ARE MODERATE AND SHORT-LIVED - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Fewer activities in the Atlantic in start of the week with the US holidays. Owners were asking around low USD 20k for trip ex USG to Far ...
Thursday, 07 September 17
TALK OF CONSTRAINTS ON CHINESE COAL OUTPUT PUSHED PRICES HIGHER - DANIEL HYNES
Commodity markets were largely higher as a weaker USD boosted investor appetite.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ ...
Wednesday, 06 September 17
LAYTIME - CHARTERERS' RIGHTS & PORT COSTS - NORTH P&I CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a recent London Arbitration decision (18/17) the Tribunal had to consider whether the owners were entitled to recover ...
Wednesday, 06 September 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
The impact of Hurricane Harvey, which made landfall on 25th of August in South East coastline of Texas area has been the major concern of the shipp ...
Tuesday, 05 September 17
COAL: A STRONG MOVEMENT IN THE COAL MARKET OVER THE SUMMER MONTHS - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
We have been witnessing a strong movement in the coal market over the summer months something that has not only helped boost prices for the commodi ...
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Showing 1951 to 1955 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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