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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 01 September 17
U.S COAL OUTPUT DIPS WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 31 August 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS AT AROUND $9000, DELIVERY THAILAND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit slow start to the week with UK holidays on Monday. Still strong rates for cargoes out of Black Sea, where front hauls where done $ ...
Tuesday, 29 August 17
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, one of the worst disasters to hit Texas, we are now looking to get a clearer picture of the possible disrupti ...
Tuesday, 29 August 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUT UP 3.4% WEEK OVER WEEK TO APPROX. 17 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tonne ...
Thursday, 24 August 17
SUPRAMAX: LOW $10K FOR INDO COAL TRIPS TO INDIA; AROUND $10K FOR INDO TO CHINA TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week Supras from the Black Sea on fhaul have seen numerous orders and improving rates.
53-57k dwt vessels have been fixed at e ...
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Showing 1956 to 1960 news of total 6871 |
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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