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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 01 September 17
U.S COAL OUTPUT DIPS WEEK OVER WEEK, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 16.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 31 August 17
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA COAL TRIPS AT AROUND $9000, DELIVERY THAILAND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A bit slow start to the week with UK holidays on Monday. Still strong rates for cargoes out of Black Sea, where front hauls where done $ ...
Tuesday, 29 August 17
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
In the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, one of the worst disasters to hit Texas, we are now looking to get a clearer picture of the possible disrupti ...
Tuesday, 29 August 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUT UP 3.4% WEEK OVER WEEK TO APPROX. 17 MMST, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 17 million short tonne ...
Thursday, 24 August 17
SUPRAMAX: LOW $10K FOR INDO COAL TRIPS TO INDIA; AROUND $10K FOR INDO TO CHINA TRIPS - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week Supras from the Black Sea on fhaul have seen numerous orders and improving rates.
53-57k dwt vessels have been fixed at e ...
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Showing 1956 to 1960 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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