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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 11 September 17
A PUNCHY WEEK FOR THE BIG SHIPS AS THE RATE FOR WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA HIT $8.00 THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY THREE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships as the rate for West Australia/China hit $8.00 the first time in nearly three years. A Jiangsu Steamship ...
Monday, 11 September 17
INDONESIAN ICPR SURGES HIGHER, POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY RISE SINCE DECEMBER 2016, ESDM DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 9.60% in September, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 11 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 6.235 MMT OF 5700 AND 5100 NAR COAL FOR 2017 TO 2022 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 1,590,000 Metric Tons of Bitumino ...
Monday, 11 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK; BCI UP 22.22% & BPI UP 14.77%
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments week over week. Mainly Cape and Panamax have supported to pushed up BDI this past week, BDI, ...
Friday, 08 September 17
MIXED SIGNALS ON REFINERY PREPARATIONS FOR 2020 FUEL CHANGES - IBIA
A recent consultancy survey has suggested that some 85% of refiners have not made plans for how to deal with the expected dramatic fall in g ...
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Showing 1946 to 1950 news of total 6871 |
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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