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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 11 September 17
A PUNCHY WEEK FOR THE BIG SHIPS AS THE RATE FOR WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA HIT $8.00 THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY THREE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
A punchy week for the big ships as the rate for West Australia/China hit $8.00 the first time in nearly three years. A Jiangsu Steamship ...
Monday, 11 September 17
INDONESIAN ICPR SURGES HIGHER, POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY RISE SINCE DECEMBER 2016, ESDM DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 9.60% in September, government data showed.
The benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 11 September 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 6.235 MMT OF 5700 AND 5100 NAR COAL FOR 2017 TO 2022 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 1,590,000 Metric Tons of Bitumino ...
Monday, 11 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE WEEK OVER WEEK; BCI UP 22.22% & BPI UP 14.77%
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments week over week. Mainly Cape and Panamax have supported to pushed up BDI this past week, BDI, ...
Friday, 08 September 17
MIXED SIGNALS ON REFINERY PREPARATIONS FOR 2020 FUEL CHANGES - IBIA
A recent consultancy survey has suggested that some 85% of refiners have not made plans for how to deal with the expected dramatic fall in g ...
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Showing 1946 to 1950 news of total 6871 |
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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