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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 September 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
An undoubtedly interesting market lately is the newbuilding market, in which we are witnessing numerous orders across all sectors and sizes. At the ...
Monday, 18 September 17
COAL PRICES WERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED WEEK OVER WEEK - ANZ
COALspot.com: Coal prices were relatively unchanged, with most interest remaining in the thermal coal market said Daniel Hynes. However, falling st ...
Monday, 18 September 17
PROSPECTS ARE NOT SO CLEAR CUT FOR COAL - CLARKSONS
Prospects are not so clear-cut for coal. According to Clarksons, coal has been a key energy source since the Industrial Revolution and in 2016, ste ...
Friday, 15 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
Thursday, 14 September 17
THE FIRM COAL TRADE IS SUPPORTING SUPRAS; FIXING AROUND LOW $13000 WITH DELIVERY THAILAND - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
This week has brought Supras firm rates and numerous orders. Scrap orders from Cont to Med still pay $11000 and Fertilizer from Baltic t ...
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Showing 1936 to 1940 news of total 6871 |
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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