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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 September 17
REDUCING THE RISK OF LIQUEFACTION - IUMI
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Liquefaction is a phenomenon that can take place in granular materials, such as soil or fine ore, where the beh ...
Tuesday, 26 September 17
THE CURRENT HIGHS IN THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET WILL SURELY BE SURPASSED AND BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market con!nues to show a strong face amidst the favorable tail winds being seen, which have helped the Bal!c Dry Index inch above the ...
Monday, 25 September 17
CHOICES FOR SHIPPING AS 2020 APPROACHES? - CLARKSONS
Historically, the fuel of choice for the vast majority of large cargo ships has been heavy fuel oil. But in 2020, sulphur oxide emissions will be c ...
Monday, 25 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE IN ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments except Panamax week over week. Mainly Cape has supported to boosted up BDI this past week, BD ...
Monday, 25 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FOURTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million short ton ...
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Showing 1931 to 1935 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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