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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 26 September 17
REDUCING THE RISK OF LIQUEFACTION - IUMI
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Liquefaction is a phenomenon that can take place in granular materials, such as soil or fine ore, where the beh ...
Tuesday, 26 September 17
THE CURRENT HIGHS IN THE DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET WILL SURELY BE SURPASSED AND BY A CONSIDERABLE MARGIN IN THE NEXT YEAR OR SO - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market con!nues to show a strong face amidst the favorable tail winds being seen, which have helped the Bal!c Dry Index inch above the ...
Monday, 25 September 17
CHOICES FOR SHIPPING AS 2020 APPROACHES? - CLARKSONS
Historically, the fuel of choice for the vast majority of large cargo ships has been heavy fuel oil. But in 2020, sulphur oxide emissions will be c ...
Monday, 25 September 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET ROSE IN ALL SEGMENTS EXCEPT PANAMAX WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market rose in all segments except Panamax week over week. Mainly Cape has supported to boosted up BDI this past week, BD ...
Monday, 25 September 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT DROPS FOR THE FOURTH WEEK IN A ROW, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.5 million short ton ...
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Showing 1931 to 1935 news of total 6871 |
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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