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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 09 October 17
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS UP 10% IN SEPT AS POWER PLANTS FACE FUEL SHORTAGE - PTI
Coal imports rose by 9.5 per cent to 18.33 million tonnes (MT) in September, after having registered year-on-year decline for five months in a row, ...
Friday, 06 October 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT HAS REBOUNDED AFTER DECLINING 5 WEEKS IN A ROW
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 04 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
During the past couple of months the dry bulk market has displayed particularly strong momentum and we have been witnessing steady appetite and act ...
Tuesday, 03 October 17
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED THERMAL POWER DEPENDENT ON CHINA - VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
A report from the Green Innovation and Development Centre (GreenID) showed that, as of the end of last year, of 27 coal-fired thermopower plants, 1 ...
Tuesday, 03 October 17
RIO TINTO COMPLETES FIRST FULLY AUTONOMOUS RAIL JOURNEY IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Rio Tinto has successfully completed the first fully autonomous rail journey at its iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia ...
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Showing 1921 to 1925 news of total 6871 |
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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