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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 09 October 17
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS UP 10% IN SEPT AS POWER PLANTS FACE FUEL SHORTAGE - PTI
Coal imports rose by 9.5 per cent to 18.33 million tonnes (MT) in September, after having registered year-on-year decline for five months in a row, ...
Friday, 06 October 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT HAS REBOUNDED AFTER DECLINING 5 WEEKS IN A ROW
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 04 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
During the past couple of months the dry bulk market has displayed particularly strong momentum and we have been witnessing steady appetite and act ...
Tuesday, 03 October 17
VIETNAM'S COAL-FIRED THERMAL POWER DEPENDENT ON CHINA - VIETNAMNET BRIDGE
A report from the Green Innovation and Development Centre (GreenID) showed that, as of the end of last year, of 27 coal-fired thermopower plants, 1 ...
Tuesday, 03 October 17
RIO TINTO COMPLETES FIRST FULLY AUTONOMOUS RAIL JOURNEY IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA
Rio Tinto has successfully completed the first fully autonomous rail journey at its iron ore operations in the Pilbara region of Western Australia ...
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Showing 1921 to 1925 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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