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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 October 17
U.S RECORD EXPORTS OIL TO EAST HAS HELPED THE TANKER TRADE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
There was a flood of fresh news this week which clouded the overall prospects of the crude oil market. Just one week prior Saudi Arabia and Russia, ...
Monday, 16 October 17
INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Friday, 13 October 17
INDIKA ENERGY SIGNS SHARE PURCHASE AGREEMENTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 45% STAKE IN KIDECO
PT Indika Energy Tbk. and its wholly-owned subsidiary PT Indika Inti Corpindo (collectively, “Indika Energy”) has entered into separate ...
Friday, 13 October 17
THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET REMAIN POSITIVE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market has picked up strongly since last week with the Chinese holidays. In the Pacific rates are increasing with some strong number ...
Friday, 13 October 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS OF 2017 TOTALED 51 MMST; UP 62% YOY, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million shor ...
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Showing 1911 to 1915 news of total 6871 |
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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