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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 October 17
U.S RECORD EXPORTS OIL TO EAST HAS HELPED THE TANKER TRADE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
There was a flood of fresh news this week which clouded the overall prospects of the crude oil market. Just one week prior Saudi Arabia and Russia, ...
Monday, 16 October 17
INDONESIA TO INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES STAY FIRM
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Friday, 13 October 17
INDIKA ENERGY SIGNS SHARE PURCHASE AGREEMENTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL 45% STAKE IN KIDECO
PT Indika Energy Tbk. and its wholly-owned subsidiary PT Indika Inti Corpindo (collectively, “Indika Energy”) has entered into separate ...
Friday, 13 October 17
THE SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE PANAMAX MARKET REMAIN POSITIVE - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market has picked up strongly since last week with the Chinese holidays. In the Pacific rates are increasing with some strong number ...
Friday, 13 October 17
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS OF 2017 TOTALED 51 MMST; UP 62% YOY, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million shor ...
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Showing 1911 to 1915 news of total 6871 |
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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