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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET REPORT - INTERMODAL
While the majority of perspective Buyers in the dry bulk second-hand market is currently focusing on modern tonnage, there is also increased activi ...
Tuesday, 24 October 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN. 4600 NAR BLENDED SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL OF INDONESIAN ORIGIN FOR BORYEONG OR NEW BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 5,000,000 Metric Tons of blended sub-bi ...
Tuesday, 24 October 17
CHINA'S INSATIABLE APPETITE FOR THIS ENERGY COMMODITY CONTINUES STRONG - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Crude oil prices have been seeing some support emerge this past week as supply disruptions in Iraq and a drop in US drilling has helped bolster oil ...
Friday, 20 October 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.45 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Tuesday, 17 October 17
SULPHUR 2020: COMING, READY OR NOT - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Some 70% of shipping companies surveyed say they do not believe the industry is ready for IMO’s 2020 deadline, when a global limit of 0.5% su ...
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Showing 1906 to 1910 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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