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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 October 17
SHIPPING MARKET REPORT - INTERMODAL
While the majority of perspective Buyers in the dry bulk second-hand market is currently focusing on modern tonnage, there is also increased activi ...
Tuesday, 24 October 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR MIN. 4600 NAR BLENDED SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL OF INDONESIAN ORIGIN FOR BORYEONG OR NEW BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for 5,000,000 Metric Tons of blended sub-bi ...
Tuesday, 24 October 17
CHINA'S INSATIABLE APPETITE FOR THIS ENERGY COMMODITY CONTINUES STRONG - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
Crude oil prices have been seeing some support emerge this past week as supply disruptions in Iraq and a drop in US drilling has helped bolster oil ...
Friday, 20 October 17
U.S COAL PRODUCTION FELL 1.45 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Tuesday, 17 October 17
SULPHUR 2020: COMING, READY OR NOT - ALIBRA SHIPPING
Some 70% of shipping companies surveyed say they do not believe the industry is ready for IMO’s 2020 deadline, when a global limit of 0.5% su ...
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Showing 1906 to 1910 news of total 6871 |
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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