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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 06 November 17
THE THERMAL COAL MARKET CAME UNDER SOME PRESSURE AS THE OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND WEAKENED - DANIEL HYNES
Commodities were mixed as investors grappled with a revised tax plan in the US amid a rising USD said Daniel Hynes in his linked in post.
Acco ...
Monday, 06 November 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUED TO SOFTEN THIS PAST WEEK; BCI DOWN 184 POINT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to soften this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and all segments except Panamax index ...
Friday, 03 November 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL WEEK-OVER-WEEK, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.5 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 01 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
As it was expected, the strong dry bulk freight market of the past couple of months has inspired similar activity in the second-hand market. Noneth ...
Tuesday, 31 October 17
BALTIC DRY INDEX TAKES A BREAK FROM ITS UPWARD RALLY COURSE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a week of corrections for the dry bulk freight market as it seems as the general Baltic Dry Index takes a break from its upward rally c ...
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Showing 1896 to 1900 news of total 6871 |
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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