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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 06 November 17
THE THERMAL COAL MARKET CAME UNDER SOME PRESSURE AS THE OUTLOOK FOR DEMAND WEAKENED - DANIEL HYNES
Commodities were mixed as investors grappled with a revised tax plan in the US amid a rising USD said Daniel Hynes in his linked in post.
Acco ...
Monday, 06 November 17
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS CONTINUED TO SOFTEN THIS PAST WEEK; BCI DOWN 184 POINT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was continued to soften this past week compared to the previous week, as BDI and all segments except Panamax index ...
Friday, 03 November 17
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL WEEK-OVER-WEEK, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.5 million short ton ...
Wednesday, 01 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
As it was expected, the strong dry bulk freight market of the past couple of months has inspired similar activity in the second-hand market. Noneth ...
Tuesday, 31 October 17
BALTIC DRY INDEX TAKES A BREAK FROM ITS UPWARD RALLY COURSE - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
It has been a week of corrections for the dry bulk freight market as it seems as the general Baltic Dry Index takes a break from its upward rally c ...
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Showing 1896 to 1900 news of total 6871 |
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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