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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 08 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE MIXED; COKING COAL EKING OUT SOME GAINS; THERMAL COAL STRUGGLING - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were mixed, with coking coal eking out some gains, while thermal coal struggled amid the falling oil prices, ANZ Strategist said in a ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
If you are a dry bulk owner today you are definitely feeling the pressure of the past couple of years off and given the admittedly unexpected growt ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
NEW QUAY OPENED AT THE INDUSTRIAL PORT IN BREMEN,GERMAN
Press Release: After a building period lasting three-and-a-half years, the port logistics firm Weserport, the “bremenports” comp ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
ING JOINS FORCES ON BLOCKCHAIN-BASED PLATFORM FOR ENERGY COMMODITIES SECTOR
Blockchain technology. It’s often been described as the most important invention in computing in a generation.
So it should come as no s ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
MECHEL SIGNED LONG-TERM COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT WITH ITOCHU CORPORATION
Mechel PAO a leading Russian mining and metals company, reports signing a framework agreement with a major Japanese universal trading company Itoch ...
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Showing 1886 to 1890 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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