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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 08 November 17
COAL MARKETS WERE MIXED; COKING COAL EKING OUT SOME GAINS; THERMAL COAL STRUGGLING - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were mixed, with coking coal eking out some gains, while thermal coal struggled amid the falling oil prices, ANZ Strategist said in a ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT
If you are a dry bulk owner today you are definitely feeling the pressure of the past couple of years off and given the admittedly unexpected growt ...
Wednesday, 08 November 17
NEW QUAY OPENED AT THE INDUSTRIAL PORT IN BREMEN,GERMAN
Press Release: After a building period lasting three-and-a-half years, the port logistics firm Weserport, the “bremenports” comp ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
ING JOINS FORCES ON BLOCKCHAIN-BASED PLATFORM FOR ENERGY COMMODITIES SECTOR
Blockchain technology. It’s often been described as the most important invention in computing in a generation.
So it should come as no s ...
Tuesday, 07 November 17
MECHEL SIGNED LONG-TERM COAL SUPPLY CONTRACT WITH ITOCHU CORPORATION
Mechel PAO a leading Russian mining and metals company, reports signing a framework agreement with a major Japanese universal trading company Itoch ...
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Showing 1886 to 1890 news of total 6871 |
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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