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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 14 November 17
COAL STOCKS RUN SHORT, CENTRE TO GET DAILY UPDATE ON STOCKS - DECCAN CHRONICLE
Facing a shortage of coal for thermal power generation in the country, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has issued guidelines for maintainin ...
Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the hi ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES WERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were broadly higher, driven by strong gains in the metallurgical coal market said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in h ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THIESS AWARDED $300M SANGATTA EXPANSION CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a $300 million contract by Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) to expand operations at Sangatta coal mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia ...
Friday, 10 November 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF 2017 IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 656 MMST; UP10% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ...
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Showing 1881 to 1885 news of total 6871 |
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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