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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 14 November 17
COAL STOCKS RUN SHORT, CENTRE TO GET DAILY UPDATE ON STOCKS - DECCAN CHRONICLE
Facing a shortage of coal for thermal power generation in the country, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has issued guidelines for maintainin ...
Tuesday, 14 November 17
IN 2018, WORLD OIL DEMAND IS FORESEEN REACHING 1.51 MB/D - OPEC
Oil Market Highlights - OPEC
The OPEC Reference Basket averaged $55.50/b in October, gaining $2.06 over the previous month and reaching the hi ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THERMAL COAL PRICES WERE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were broadly higher, driven by strong gains in the metallurgical coal market said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in h ...
Monday, 13 November 17
THIESS AWARDED $300M SANGATTA EXPANSION CONTRACT
Thiess has been awarded a $300 million contract by Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) to expand operations at Sangatta coal mine in East Kalimantan, Indonesia ...
Friday, 10 November 17
U.S. COAL OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 10 MONTHS OF 2017 IS ESTIMATED AT AROUND 656 MMST; UP10% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15 million short tons ...
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Showing 1881 to 1885 news of total 6871 |
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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