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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 22 November 17
CHINA CONSUMES MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE IRON ORE MARKET; PRODUCES AS MUCH STEEL AS THE REST OF THE WORLD COMBINED - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
China consumes more than two-thirds of the global seaborne iron ore market and at the same time produces as much steel as the rest of the world com ...
Monday, 20 November 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SURGES 0.86% TO $94.80 A TON, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 0.86% in November compared to declared price in October, the latest ministerial decree showed. ...
Friday, 17 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 678.8 MMST OF COAL YEAR TO DATE; 9% UP Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 November 17
PANAMAX ACTIVITIES HAVE SLOWED DOWN QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Another week with rates easing over all the Supra routes within Atlantic.
Front hauls from USG got payed around 21-22k daily and ul ...
Thursday, 16 November 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 3.9 MILLION TONS OF 5700 NAR AND 5400 NAR COAL FOR 2018 - 2020 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 3,900,000 Metric Tons of min. 570 ...
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Showing 1871 to 1875 news of total 6871 |
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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