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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 22 November 17
CHINA CONSUMES MORE THAN TWO-THIRDS OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE IRON ORE MARKET; PRODUCES AS MUCH STEEL AS THE REST OF THE WORLD COMBINED - CHRISTOPHER T. WHITTY
China consumes more than two-thirds of the global seaborne iron ore market and at the same time produces as much steel as the rest of the world com ...
Monday, 20 November 17
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE SURGES 0.86% TO $94.80 A TON, GOVERNMENT DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal benchmark price surges 0.86% in November compared to declared price in October, the latest ministerial decree showed. ...
Friday, 17 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 678.8 MMST OF COAL YEAR TO DATE; 9% UP Y/Y, EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.8 million short ton ...
Thursday, 16 November 17
PANAMAX ACTIVITIES HAVE SLOWED DOWN QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY THE LAST WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Another week with rates easing over all the Supra routes within Atlantic.
Front hauls from USG got payed around 21-22k daily and ul ...
Thursday, 16 November 17
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 3.9 MILLION TONS OF 5700 NAR AND 5400 NAR COAL FOR 2018 - 2020 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an another new tender for total 3,900,000 Metric Tons of min. 570 ...
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Showing 1871 to 1875 news of total 6871 |
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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