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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 29 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
In line with most expectations for the end of this month, during the past days the Dry Bulk market realized a significant rebound that sent the BDI ...
Tuesday, 28 November 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN A REMARKABLE RECOVERY THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market has shown a remarkable recovery this year with the average earnings having increased by around 63% this year so far compared to ...
Friday, 24 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 14.9 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOV 18; UP 0.9% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 November 17
PANAMAX: ANOTHER SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK; DECREASING FREIGHT RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start to the week. USG closed last week a bit tighter, and continued into the new week on a positive tone with little concluded, ...
Wednesday, 22 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS FLAT AMID CONCERNS OF FURTHER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN CHINA, SAYS DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were mixed. Thermal coal was flat amid concerns of further government intervention in China, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strateg ...
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Showing 1866 to 1870 news of total 6871 |
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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