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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 29 November 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
In line with most expectations for the end of this month, during the past days the Dry Bulk market realized a significant rebound that sent the BDI ...
Tuesday, 28 November 17
THE DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN A REMARKABLE RECOVERY THIS YEAR - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The Dry Bulk market has shown a remarkable recovery this year with the average earnings having increased by around 63% this year so far compared to ...
Friday, 24 November 17
U.S. PRODUCED 14.9 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOV 18; UP 0.9% W/W - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.9 million short ton ...
Thursday, 23 November 17
PANAMAX: ANOTHER SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK; DECREASING FREIGHT RATES IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
A quiet start to the week. USG closed last week a bit tighter, and continued into the new week on a positive tone with little concluded, ...
Wednesday, 22 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS FLAT AMID CONCERNS OF FURTHER GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION IN CHINA, SAYS DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were mixed. Thermal coal was flat amid concerns of further government intervention in China, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strateg ...
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Showing 1866 to 1870 news of total 6871 |
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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