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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 November 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 14.94 PERCENT LESS COAL IN OCTOBER 2017, DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,466.8 ...
Thursday, 16 November 17
GOVERNMENT, 13 COAL MINERS AGREE TO CHANGE CONTRACTS - JP
The government and 13 coal mining companies have agreed to change the old Contract of Work (CoW), as part of the implementation of Law No. 4/20199 ...
Wednesday, 15 November 17
IEA RECOGNISES COAL'S CONTINUOUS IMPORTANCE TO GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS - WCA
The World Coal Association (WCA) has welcomed the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recognition that coal will continue to play a vital rol ...
Wednesday, 15 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS DRAGGED DOWN BY THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WIDER ENERGY SECTOR - DANIEL HYNES
The coal market was mixed.
Thermal coal was dragged down by the weakness across the wider energy sector, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodi ...
Wednesday, 15 November 17
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
For another week, oil seems to be the most volatile and interesting commodity to watch. In this segment we’ll look at some of the major facto ...
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Showing 1876 to 1880 news of total 6871 |
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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