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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 November 17
THE PORT OF NEWCASTLE HAS SHIPPED 14.94 PERCENT LESS COAL IN OCTOBER 2017, DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1,466.8 ...
Thursday, 16 November 17
GOVERNMENT, 13 COAL MINERS AGREE TO CHANGE CONTRACTS - JP
The government and 13 coal mining companies have agreed to change the old Contract of Work (CoW), as part of the implementation of Law No. 4/20199 ...
Wednesday, 15 November 17
IEA RECOGNISES COAL'S CONTINUOUS IMPORTANCE TO GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS - WCA
The World Coal Association (WCA) has welcomed the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recognition that coal will continue to play a vital rol ...
Wednesday, 15 November 17
THERMAL COAL WAS DRAGGED DOWN BY THE WEAKNESS ACROSS THE WIDER ENERGY SECTOR - DANIEL HYNES
The coal market was mixed.
Thermal coal was dragged down by the weakness across the wider energy sector, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodi ...
Wednesday, 15 November 17
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
For another week, oil seems to be the most volatile and interesting commodity to watch. In this segment we’ll look at some of the major facto ...
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Showing 1876 to 1880 news of total 6871 |
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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