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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 05 December 17
THE COKING AND THERMAL COAL RECORDING SMALL GAINS - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were higher, with both coking and thermal coal recording small gains, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in his late ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 30 November 17
CONTEMPLATING COAL'S CONTROVERSY AT COP23 - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Representing the coal industry at climate talks is never going to be an easy proposition. For many people, coal and climate action are incompatible ...
Wednesday, 29 November 17
THE LAST DAYS OF COAL? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
At least 15 countries have joined an international alliance to phase out coal use for power generation before 2030.
Britain, Canada, Denmark, ...
Wednesday, 29 November 17
THERMAL COAL MARKETS WERE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUBDUED - DANIEL HYNES, ANZ
Coal prices were stronger, led by gains in coking coal. Premium hard coking coal jumped above USD200/t for the first time in two months, said Danie ...
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Showing 1861 to 1865 news of total 6871 |
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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