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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 05 December 17
THE COKING AND THERMAL COAL RECORDING SMALL GAINS - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were higher, with both coking and thermal coal recording small gains, said Daniel Hynes Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ in his late ...
Tuesday, 05 December 17
WEEKLY US COAL PRODUCTION ESTIMATES DIP WEEK OVER WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 14.1 million short ton ...
Thursday, 30 November 17
CONTEMPLATING COAL'S CONTROVERSY AT COP23 - BENJAMIN SPORTON
Representing the coal industry at climate talks is never going to be an easy proposition. For many people, coal and climate action are incompatible ...
Wednesday, 29 November 17
THE LAST DAYS OF COAL? - ALIBRA SHIPPING
At least 15 countries have joined an international alliance to phase out coal use for power generation before 2030.
Britain, Canada, Denmark, ...
Wednesday, 29 November 17
THERMAL COAL MARKETS WERE A LITTLE BIT MORE SUBDUED - DANIEL HYNES, ANZ
Coal prices were stronger, led by gains in coking coal. Premium hard coking coal jumped above USD200/t for the first time in two months, said Danie ...
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Showing 1861 to 1865 news of total 6871 |
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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