We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
|
|
|
Showing 1851 to 1855 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
