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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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Showing 1851 to 1855 news of total 6871 |
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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