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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 December 17
DEMAND FOR THERMAL COAL LOOKED RELATIVELY ROBUST - DANIEL HYNES
Coal prices were a touch higher. Demand for thermal coal looked relatively robust, after reports continued to surface that Chinese authorities have ...
Wednesday, 13 December 17
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE PANAGOPOULOS
As another year is coming to an end and much has been already written about the positive reversal in the dry bulk market, we think it is interestin ...
Monday, 11 December 17
INDIA CONSUMERS ARE SAID TO BE DESPERATELY SEEKING CARGOES - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were stronger, as strong demand outside China continues to spur buying said Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist at ANZ.
Acc ...
Monday, 11 December 17
CAPESIZE FFA MARKET LOOKING PROMISING MOVING FORWARD - FIS
Capesize
Another very promising day for the big ships as rates continued to firm in both oceans and the paper market ate into the backwardation s ...
Friday, 08 December 17
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 11.6 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.7 million short ton ...
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Showing 1851 to 1855 news of total 6871 |
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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