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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
FUEL SHORTAGE TRIGGERS JUMP IN COAL PRICES - CHINA DAILY
China’s thermal coal prices jumped recently as natural gas shortages across the north spurred an unexpected resurgence in demand for coal-fir ...
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Showing 1841 to 1845 news of total 6871 |
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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