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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 December 17
COAL INDIA BOARD CLEARS THE WAY FOR SCHEME FOR HARNESSING AND ALLOCATING KOYALA (COAL) TRANSPARENTLY IN INDIA - PIB
The Coal India Limited (CIL) Board cleared the decks for signing of Fuel Supply Agreement (FSA), for supply of coal.
According to Press Inform ...
Friday, 22 December 17
WILL THE DRY BULK INDUSTRY BECOME PROFITABLE IN 2018? - PETER SAND, BIMCO
As the dry bulk fleet is already expected to grow at a pace that matches demand growth expected in 2019, focus must be on improving the fundamental ...
Friday, 22 December 17
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT SLIPS SLIGHTLY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
COAL CONSUMPTION DROPS AS GAS AND RENEWABLES CHEW INTO TRADITIONAL MARKETS - BABS MCHUGH
"The share of coal in the global energy mix is forecast to decline from 27 per cent last year to 26 per cent in 2022"
Global demand ...
Thursday, 21 December 17
FUEL SHORTAGE TRIGGERS JUMP IN COAL PRICES - CHINA DAILY
China’s thermal coal prices jumped recently as natural gas shortages across the north spurred an unexpected resurgence in demand for coal-fir ...
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Showing 1841 to 1845 news of total 6871 |
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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