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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 04 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA WERE FIXED AT AROUND $8K DAILY; DOWN AROUND 27% WOW
Supramax
Q1 kicked off with an usual standby with all counterparts waiting for the market to take direction. Further holidays in East-Europe adde ...
Wednesday, 03 January 18
KOMIPO TO BUY 130K TONS OF MIN. 5700 NAR COAL FOR FEB 2018 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130k Metric Tons of min. 5700 NAR coal to be burnt a ...
Friday, 29 December 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED A$ 1.527 BILLION WORTH OF 12.65 MT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1527.6 M ...
Friday, 29 December 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE WEEK ENDING 23 DEC, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 27 December 17
SULPHUR EMISSIONS: THE OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES - UK P&I CLUB
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been working to reduce the harmful impacts of shipping on the environment.
It adopted Annex ...
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Showing 1836 to 1840 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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