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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 04 January 18
SUPRAMAX: INDO TO CHINA WERE FIXED AT AROUND $8K DAILY; DOWN AROUND 27% WOW
Supramax
Q1 kicked off with an usual standby with all counterparts waiting for the market to take direction. Further holidays in East-Europe adde ...
Wednesday, 03 January 18
KOMIPO TO BUY 130K TONS OF MIN. 5700 NAR COAL FOR FEB 2018 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 130k Metric Tons of min. 5700 NAR coal to be burnt a ...
Friday, 29 December 17
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED A$ 1.527 BILLION WORTH OF 12.65 MT OF COAL IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports, and the world’s largest coal export port has shipped $AU 1527.6 M ...
Friday, 29 December 17
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP FOR THE WEEK ENDING 23 DEC, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 27 December 17
SULPHUR EMISSIONS: THE OUTSTANDING CHALLENGES - UK P&I CLUB
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has been working to reduce the harmful impacts of shipping on the environment.
It adopted Annex ...
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Showing 1836 to 1840 news of total 6871 |
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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