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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
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Showing 1826 to 1830 news of total 6871 |
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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