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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 19 January 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT WAS 13.5 MMST FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 13, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 13.5 million short tons ...
Thursday, 18 January 18
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL RISES BY 1.5% IN 2017 - KOHLENIMPORTEURE
Press Release: World Trade in Hard Coal Rises by 1.5% in 2017. German Steam Coal Imports Plummet by 15% in 2017 – in Contrast to Other Sector ...
Wednesday, 17 January 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we are now well into the first month of 2018, the mood across the entire offshore industry undeniably remains rather positive following the oil ...
Monday, 15 January 18
THE FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FLAT TO WEAK THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has stayed firm, week over week, ...
Monday, 15 January 18
QUEENSLAND SHIPPED 210.8 MT OF COAL IN 2017, DOWN 5% YOY QUEENSLAND RESOURCES COUNCIL
Queensland's coal exports over the 12 months reached 210.8 mt which is down 10 mt or 5 per cent from the previous year’s record of 220.8 ...
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Showing 1826 to 1830 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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