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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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