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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 06 February 18
THE FUNDAMENTALS FOR INDIAN COAL IMPORTS CONTINUE TO LOOK PROMISING - TORVALD KLAVENESS
Back in August we reported that the fundamentals impacting Indian coal imports looked more promising.
Trade flow data today implies 17.4Mt of ...
Monday, 05 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO INDIA PASSING THROUGH SINGAPORE HAS SOFTENED
COALspot.com: The daily average earnings for Supramax, for the route Indonesia to India passing through Singapore has softened, week over week, own ...
Friday, 02 February 18
SUPRAMAX : INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIPS ARE PAYING AROUND MID USD 9000 - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Rather quiet week within Atl, specially Continent due to lack of cargoes.
According to Fearnleys Weekly - Dry bulk report published ...
Friday, 02 February 18
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 54.1 MMST, DOWN 8.8% YOY - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.3 million short tons ...
Thursday, 01 February 18
RISING US OIL EXPORTS, MARKET DISRUPTION, BRENT-WTI SPREAD - WOOD MACKENZIE
What will US tight oil growth do to crude markets? The build-up in volumes early this decade led to a supply glut that undermined prices in 2014.
...
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Showing 1816 to 1820 news of total 6871 |
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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