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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfo ...
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Showing 1806 to 1810 news of total 6871 |
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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