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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 14 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - NASSOS SOULAKIS
The second month of the year is traditionally a particularly interesting one for the shipping industry as a whole and even more importantly for the ...
Monday, 12 February 18
PANAMAX: WITH LIMITED FRESH ENQUIRY IN ALL AREAS, SPOT MARKET RATES DRIFTED LOWER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A switch to the Atlantic with rates firming as charterers seemed keen to fix and tonnage was tight, prompting a recovery in rates. Trans ...
Monday, 12 February 18
WORLDWIDE: 'DEMURRAGE CLAIMS' FOR THE PURPOSES OF DOCUMENTARY TIME BARS
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 2 February 2018 the Commercial Court allowed an appeal from a decision of the Arbitration Tribunal in Lukoil Asia Paci ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
COAL INDIA ON PATH OF SUSTAINABLE PRODUCTION GROWTH AND SUPPLY TO POWER AND NON POWER SECTOR - PIB
Supply of 371.8 MT of Coal to Power Sector and 103.1 MT Coal to Non-Power Sector Achieved in 2017-18 Till January,2018 Average Rake Loading To The ...
Saturday, 10 February 18
OIL PRICE USD 100/BARREL BY END OF 2018! - SAROJ MOHAPATRA
All demand supplies calculations are going wrong in oil market at present. US production is increasing at a good pace and set to topple Saudi comfo ...
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Showing 1806 to 1810 news of total 6871 |
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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