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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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