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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 24 February 18
CHINA BECOMES WORLD'S SECOND LARGEST LNG IMPORTER, BEHIND JAPAN - EIA
China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s second-largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2017, according to data from IHS ...
Friday, 23 February 18
ESTIMATED U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.8 PER CENT W/E 17 FEB' 18 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.6 million short tons ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
WHY THE COMMODITY RALLY WILL GET BACK ON TRACK - SIMON FLOWERS
Implications for the US dollar and producers
Are we in the early stages of a sustained rise in commodity prices? And what does it mean for the ...
Thursday, 22 February 18
PANAMAX: IT HAS BEEN A SLOW AND UNEVENTFUL WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Slight improvement from Atlantic with more hope for upcoming weeks. More grain cargoes from Black Sea made fhaul rates better again $17- ...
Wednesday, 21 February 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
2017 proved to be a relatively good year with positive margins for the Dry Bulk market. Especially during the last quarter of the year everyone can ...
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Showing 1796 to 1800 news of total 6871 |
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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