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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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