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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 02 March 18
MORE COAL INQUIRES FROM SOUTH AFRICA TO INDIA; SUPRAS FIXED CA $12K + BB - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
Better rates in Atlantic, but not too busy market just yet.
Black Sea catched improving rates for grain cargoes, where supras to Eg ...
Friday, 02 March 18
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7 PER CENT W/E 24 FEB, EIA DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.2 million short tons ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
INDIA: TEPID COAL TRAFFIC TO HIT VOLUME GROWTH AT PORTS TILL 2022 - PTI
Cargo growth at the country’s major ports is all set to moderate to 3-5 per cent per annum over the next five years due to the “sedate ...
Wednesday, 28 February 18
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
US Shale production continues to grow rapidly, hitting new records and with projections being revised upwardly at every turn. According to the Inte ...
Tuesday, 27 February 18
SHELL SEES POTENTIAL LNG SUPPLY SHORTAGE AS GLOBAL DEMAND SURGES
Media Release: The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market has continued to defy expectations of many market observers, with demand growing by 29 ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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