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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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