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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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