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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 09 March 18
U.S. EXPORTED 97 MMST OF COAL IN 2017, A 61 PER CENT INCREASE FROM 2016 - EIA
COALspot.com – U.S., the world’s second largest coal producers have produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short tons ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
BUMA SIGNED OVER US$ 500 MILLION WORTH OF NEW CONTRACT WITH PT TANAH BUMBU RESOURCES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into mining services ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
THE ENERGY CONTRIBUTION FROM COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 1072 BU BY 2021-22 : PIB
Government of India has set an ambitious target of 175 GW from Renewable energy sources (RES) by 2022, which comprises of 100 GW Solar, 60GW from W ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
SUPRAMAX: THE MARKET IS STILL GOING STRONG IN THE PACIFIC - FEARNLEYS
Supramax
The market is still going strong in the Pacific, with Ultra fixing high US$ 13000+375000 bb for South Africa to ECI while nickel ore run ...
Thursday, 08 March 18
AVERAGE U.S. COAL MINING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES AS PRODUCTION FALLS - EIA
Coal mining productivity in the United States increased 26% over the past five years, reaching 6.8 tons per miner hour in 2017, up from 5.4 tons pe ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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