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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 15 March 18
BHEL COMMISSIONS 600 MW THERMAL POWER PLANT FOR APGENCO IN ANDHRA PRADESH
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has successfully commissioned a 600 MW coal-based thermal power plant in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUEK GROUP SECURES $1.055BN 5-YEAR SYNDICATED PRE-EXPORT FINANCE FACILITY
SUEK Group signed a $1.055bn syndicated pre-export loan agreement. The facility with five years duration is secured against the Group’s expor ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
COAL PRICES UP SAYS MINERALS COUNCIL - IAN KIRKWOOD,THE HERALD
NSW thermal coal exports were at near-record levels last year but prices were up, the Minerals Council of NSW has said after appraising annual stat ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
NEW COAL PRICE FORMULA DOESN'T APPLY RETROACTIVELY: OFFICIAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has decided to change the implementation period of the new discounted price formula for coal sold to the ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
Interest in second hand tonnage remains firm with buyers in the dry bulk sector looking to benefit from rising freight rates that are eventually ex ...
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Showing 1771 to 1775 news of total 6871 |
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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