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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 15 March 18
BHEL COMMISSIONS 600 MW THERMAL POWER PLANT FOR APGENCO IN ANDHRA PRADESH
Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited (BHEL) has successfully commissioned a 600 MW coal-based thermal power plant in the state of Andhra Pradesh.
...
Thursday, 15 March 18
SUEK GROUP SECURES $1.055BN 5-YEAR SYNDICATED PRE-EXPORT FINANCE FACILITY
SUEK Group signed a $1.055bn syndicated pre-export loan agreement. The facility with five years duration is secured against the Group’s expor ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
COAL PRICES UP SAYS MINERALS COUNCIL - IAN KIRKWOOD,THE HERALD
NSW thermal coal exports were at near-record levels last year but prices were up, the Minerals Council of NSW has said after appraising annual stat ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
NEW COAL PRICE FORMULA DOESN'T APPLY RETROACTIVELY: OFFICIAL - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry has decided to change the implementation period of the new discounted price formula for coal sold to the ...
Wednesday, 14 March 18
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASILIS MOIRIS
Interest in second hand tonnage remains firm with buyers in the dry bulk sector looking to benefit from rising freight rates that are eventually ex ...
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Showing 1771 to 1775 news of total 6871 |
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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